Thursday, April 16, 2009

What were you thinking?



Now that the playoffs are upon us it has come time to reflect on predictions made in the early portion of the season. To point out the wrongs and illuminate the few rights of this season's forecast. In the Western Confernce I had the Lakers ending up the number one seed and with the best or second best record in the entire NBA, but the accuracy of my fortune telling ceased there. No other prediction about the Western Conference came true; unless you count the fact that besides Los Angeles, I had six out of seven correct playoff teams. The issue is that the order of the chosen postseason teams was entirely wrong. I had the Lakers at 1, Rockets at 2, Hornets 3, Jazz 4, Suns 5, Spurs 6, Nuggets 7, and Trailblazers holding up the rear with the eighth seed. Yes seven out of those eight teams are in the playoffs, and yes the Lakers are the number one (with the NBA's second best record) seed, but the true postseason totem poll stacks up far differently. Reality's version of the Western Conference playoff seeding is as follows: 1) Lakers 2: Nuggets 3:Spurs 4:Trailblazers 5:Rockets 6:Mavericks 7:Hornets 8:Jazz. My only defense against such incorrectness is that the Rockets, Suns, Jazz, and Hornets were not by any stretch of the imagination equipped with healthy rosters this year. 

The Eastern Conference predictions turned out even worse with only six of my eight playoff teams qualified for postseason action. I had the Celtics at the top of the Conference followed by: 2) Cavaliers 3)Pistons 4)Magic 5) Raptors 6) 76ers 7)Hawks 8)Wizards. Besides the sixth seeded 76ers and preordaining Thaddeus Young's good season the NBA forecast was a disaster. The true outcome of this year's Eastern standings shaped up to be more like: 1:Cavaliers 2:Celtics 3:Magic 4:Hawks 5:Heat 6:76ers 7: Bulls 8:Pistons. Perhaps Lebron can bail me out by winning the MVP, redeeming some of my projection credibility. Again in my defense I planned on a Celtics team with KG and other players being healthy more than they were. The biggest pitfalls these prognostications ran into were under and over estimations. The underestimation of Dwayne Wade's ability to enhance the Miami Heat, the Atlanta Hawks, and the Chicago Bulls. The overestimation of Allen Iverson's effect on the Piston's, Jermaine O'neal teaming up with Chris Bosh, and the Washington Wizards as a team. To predict the NBA seedings final appearance is close to impossible and looking around at other failed predictions from experts and fellow amateur bloggers, I felt better.  

No comments: