Friday, March 27, 2009

Impossible Road


With only eight games remaining the Celtics virtually have no chance of surpassing the Cleveland Cavaliers for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Since my prediction of a 15-5 finish the Celtics have won six and lost four, and now are in a deadlock with Orlando for the number two seed. It was an important game against the Magic that was lost and with the loss the C's are now hard pressed to even earn the East's number two spot. Kevin Garnett watched helplessly as Paul Pierce heaved up a last second air ball to lose the game. Doc Rivers should have played Garnett in the fourth quarter due to the direct implications of this game on the playoff seeding. Resting KG for the playoffs? Not sure his thought process, but this moment in time held quite the playoff importance. Rest him the next game or two, but at least win against Orlando and earn the number two seed for this year's playoff run. You've already seceded the number one position to the Cavilers and now your team may drop down to third place? Know when to sit your post injured star and when to play him, you needed that win. From dreams of a 72-10 season, best record in the East, second best record in the East, all the day down to third best record in the conference. What is next a first or second round playoff exit?

The Celtics and Magic are tied for the second best record as they each trail Cleveland by five full games for the coveted number one seed. Boston has eight games remaining and Orlando has ten in which to jockey for the best position (first or second seed). While Orlando has a slightly more difficult schedule they have two more games left than Boston and are fully healthy riding a five game win streak. So it seems the Boston Celtics will rest the star player back to full health and accept the backseat with a number three seed and face the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the postseason. The 76ers would stand no chance against their divisional foe and lose easily in Boston. The real concern would surface in the Eastern Semi Finals in a match up against Dwight Howard and the Magic. Even if the Celtics can out muscle a team that has beaten them in consecutive meetings, they will fall at the hands of Lebron in the Eastern Finals. The energy expended in eliminating the Magic will have been too great to then expect to go into Cleveland (where the Cavs have one loss all year) and vanquish the Cavilers. If my prediction and wish of another championship in Boston is to come to fruition we'll need a fully healthy Celtics team and nearly flawless execution from the Big Three and a contribution from the newest members of the team (Marbury and Moore). The road to the NBA finals will be heavily guarded by the Magic and Cavilers and perhaps the playoff seeding wont make any difference knowing the enemy remains either way. 

There are no more predictions, there is nothing left to say, and the Celtics will either be the number two or three seed in the Eastern Conference. The dominant emergence of Lebron's Cavs unveils gloom over Celtic dreams of back to back NBA titles, but if history teaches us anything never doubt the heart of a champion. Our only hope is for Kevin Garnett to return with the fiery passion that revamped a dormant franchise and changed a culture of losing. The Celtics chances of repeating as champions of the basketball world are good, but not great. Feast your eyes on the home stretch of the NBA season and prepare for the impossible road through Cleveland.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Human team


My prediction of 15-5 to finish out the season is looking more and more impossible, and perhaps I need to accept the Celtic's as a human team again. With one win and two losses since I professed the strong finish, the team would now have win fourteen of the remaining seventeen contests. Continuing to be shocked by losses to teams with losing records is creating for a delusional feeling. It is time to recognize the Celtics as a human team that is injured and therefore inconsistent. Spoiled by last year's dominance it seems I have fallen into the trap of saying what I want to happen and passing it off as an educated prediction. In my defense the Celtics are perhaps the most injury decimated team in the NBA right now and this has been a contributing factor. As hopes the number one seed in the Eastern Conference dwindle each day the Celtics are in dire need of Kevin Garnett. If anything, at least Marybury and Moore are getting plenty of court time to acclimate themselves to their new team concepts. This will pay dividends come playoff time, if the team is at full strength health wise, for championship contention. 
At some point Doc Rivers may also have to accept his team not being able to capture the number one seed in the East. As of right now the Celtics are 3.5 games behind Cleveland for the top position. The Cavs and Celtics have very similar remaining schedules with a mixture of good, bad, and a few abysmal teams. However, the Cavaliers have won five in a row and are a team in great health. At some point Doc will have to bite the bullet and begin significantly cutting down the minutes of his starters; in order to be rested for another supposed deep playoff run. If the return of Garnett can boost his team enough to steal away Lebron's number one seed and home court advantage then great, but at what cost. To scratch and claw your way to become the number one team; only to suffer great fatigue and an early playoff exit may not be what Boston fan's had in mind. Rivers is an excellent manager of fatiuge with a sometimes over cautious reflex protecting Garnett and other key members of the team. Predictons right or wrong, best record in the East or second the Boston Celtics are just where they thought they'd be heading back into the postseason. 

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Push for # 1


What a proud proud win by the Boston Celtics and what a terrible loss for the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Boston trailing by two games for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference this was a truly great win for the Garnett-less team. What a bad loss for the Cavs who couldn't take advantage of Kevin Garnett's absence in Boston. I had already penciled in a loss before tonight's game even began; perhaps I should have let the fact of home court advantage persuade me otherwise. The last fifteen meetings between these two opponents have yielded victory to the home team and even without KG the result was no different for Boston. The Celtics masterfully clamped down on LeBron James who made only five of his fifteen shots. This will be a key component in defeating the Cavs in a playoff series; and how impressive it was to do so without last year's defensive player of the year. Yet after this proud win on Friday night the Celtic's were beaten thoroughly by the Magic and are now 5-3 since Garnett's most recent stint out of the line up. Also without Rondo the Celtics fell far behind too early and could not recover; despite outscoring Orlando in the third and fourth quarter. The newest members of the team struggled and looked lost several times during the game. Moore and Marbury will prove valuable additions when they adjust to the Celtic system, but were inadequate today. In 36 minutes these two combined for a measly five rebounds and four points in today's defeat.
The Celtics have shown great inconsistency in The Big Ticket's absence marred by an embarrassing loss to the Clippers. After an encouraging win against the Cavs and a tough loss at home to the Magic how will this team react to another week without their best defensive player? Any games they win without KG are a great plus and Pierce and Ray Allen will not let the team suffer a losing record during this span. With an easy schedule on the nearest horizon Boston should have no trouble stringing some wins together. The Heat, Grizzles, Bulls, and Bucks are all teams that should be beaten before Garnett supposed return.

The true push for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference begins right now as the Celtic's await Kevin Garnett's much anticipated return. Now with the Magic as another legitimate contender for the top seed, Boston has little margin for error in these last twenty games. I believe that in order to achieve the best record in the Eastern Conference they cannot lose more than five games. There is an interesting mix of match-ups down the stretch with five quite challenging and the rest dominated by shoe in wins and slight challenges. The Miami Heat are playing well riding the coat tails of Dwayne Wade's MVP season and face the Celtics three times before the year's end. Perhaps one loss to this team (who has been stuck at four games over .500 all year) could be viewed as understandable, but there is no excuse to lose to the Nets, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers, Grizzles, Bobcats, 76ers, or the Wizards. The true danger lies in games against the Hawks, Spurs, Magic, and Caviliers who are all vying for playoff seeding. Bad blood runs between Boston and recently formed rivals Atlanta and Cleveland; even worse these will be road encounters. With or Without KG the push for the playoffs is now and we can expect a 15-5 run to finish out another fine regular season campaign.