Celtic Rebound

NBA history shows that after any major winning streak there is always a lull; as even the 1972 Lakers lost four of six after an American sports best 33 wins in a row. This rule of thumb will also apply to this year's defending champs. Getting back to the defensive intensity scheme the Celtics were able to build on a win with another tonight. When they beat the New Jersey Nets the next two games; 33-9 will ready Boston for a new streak.

 The Celtics had not lost four games in a row since the 2006-2007 season before the new Big Three. Four losses in a row had Celtics fans and NBA analysts alike in a doubting frenzy because of the two wins and seven losses in the last nine games. The Boston Celtics are in need of some roster updates, but I was never ready to say that they are in grave danger of not making a deep playoff run. As fans we have been spoiled by a 66 win season, NBA Title, and a 19 game winning streak to the point where a small losing skid (four games in size) casts a cloud of despair. I  admittedly fell into the hype and even spoke to the possibility of a 73 win season, but the Christmas born losing streak made it clear this record will never be broken. I should have never strayed from my preseason groundings that they would win fifty or so games. Falling for the hype is one thing, but doubting this team after a few losses is something else entirely. In fact, of the nine losses this year, there is only one of true concern. 

There have been some embarrassing defeats against New York and Charlotte along with a holiday heart breaker in Los Angeles, but none more imply playoff doom than January 9th's. The Celtic road to the NBA finals will unquestionably go through Cleveland, Ohio where Lebron James waits to exact revenge. Last Friday the Celtic's were without Paul Pierce's Game Seven heroics and without an answer for King James. Last season the Celtics were able to defend Lebron with  Posey and Pierce switching on and off. James is so physically imposing and strong that anyone guarding him is sure to be worn down and then pushed around. The luxury of spreading the physical beating (sustained defending Lebron) into two men is long gone. Perhaps if Tony Allen wasn't injured than the dual defense method could have been restored, but with no answer for number 23 the Celtic's were blown out. To beat the Cavaliers in a playoff series (which they will have to) King James must be slowed down or his teammates must be shutdown. In the past five years  it has been LeBron VS. the opposing team, and when he would receive no teammate aid a loss ensued. Now with the best team that's ever been around him LeBron James and the Cavs are primed to take on the Celtics. The Green cannot wait for James's supporting cast to fail him anymore, as the only way to achieve victory will be to contain the NBA's best all around player. Without Posey it is quite uncertain how the Celtic's will even attempt to stop LeBron; will it be a healthy Tony Allen? An untested young player? or a new member joining the team? Not only do the Celtics need someone to help stop LeBron James, but they need another big man or another two guard or both. Trust in the General Manager that lured Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to perform the necessary upgrades and right the ship.

The Greatest Season Ever?

Michael Jordan's 1996 Chicago Bulls are the proud owners of the greatest season in NBA history with 72 wins and an NBA Championship. 72-10, a record thought to be impenetrable may very well be in danger this year. After the '96 Bulls suffered a late November loss a chain reaction of wins launched them to a 41-3 record. Winning 31 of 32 games, not losing a home game until April, and losing consecutive games only once were among the most impressive accolades of this magical season. Perhaps not quite as star spangled as Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Denis Rodman, the 2008 Boston Celtics are gearing up for a legitimate strike at besting the finest season ever. Looking back it's hard to believe that Celtics legend Robert Parish was a part of that spectacular Bull's year, but maybe that historic season had a little Celtic magic. Already with a trace of Celtic lineage, the 72 win mark may most fittingly be surpassed by a new breed of green. 

While the Celtics have not won eleven straight right out of the gate, as Jordan's Bulls had, they are one win away from the best start of any team in NBA history. The 76ers of Philadelphia are all that stand between Boston and 27-2. Even with two losses this far into the season the C's would still be hard pressed to achieve the Bull's 41-3, as they would need a 14-1 run to tie and 15-0 to unthinkably pass. Just as Chicago before them, the Celtics had a November loss that sparked an impressive winning streak. At 18 straight the current streak shows no signs of slowing down, but faces its' first true challenge Christmas Day. Santa brings a 47 degree forecast and the LA Lakers for a holiday showdown that may bring Celtic fans an unforgettable present.

The New D in Big-D

With all the controversy making this all seem so long ago, why were the Dallas Cowboys the preseason Super Bowl Favorites. The supposed "hangover" from the heartbreaking Super Bowl loss was to have the Patriots out of contention giving way to the NFC. I'm not entirely convinced that a Tom Brady/Bill Belichick team would allow any such lingering effect, nonetheless this was the public sentiment. The 13-3 Dallas Cowboys from a year ago were perceived hungry to avenge their impromptu playoff loss, as perceived desire was to be melded with a profusion of talent. A prolific passing game, dominant running game, and talent strewn across the board on defense the 2008 Dallas Cowboys were decidedly the NFC's best. The hype's crowning moment came to fruition in the HBO feature "Hardknocks" which further infected us all with Cowboy grandeur. The following reiterates the preseason hype that held Dallas in such very high regard.

The Passing Game: Tony Romo is often compared to Brett Favre with his great mobility and improvisational magic; turning dead end plays into lucrative gains. Although  lacking that signature Favre arm strength, Romo is a more accurate passer with less of the gunslinger persona. The Dallas QB is not afraid of the check down pass to his tight end or running back as opposed to the gunslinger mentality of bombing the football into double coverage. Clearly Romo is not yet proven in postseason game situations, but he has tremendous upside. Jason Witten is the best all around tight end in the National Football League and Terrell Owens is one of the best wide outs of all time. Witten and Owens are respectively match up nightmares for opposing defenses because they are both physical, strong, and fast at their positions. Witten's blocking skills overshadowed only by that of an offensive lineman are combined with his impressive speed and pass catching ability. This skill set produces a half breed of offensive tackle and wide receiver who's prowess at the tight end position makes him Romo's security blanket. The opposition won't be able to know when this additional offensive linemen disengages his blocking assignment ten yards up the field with the ball in hand. If the other team wanted to close off the valve to the underneath passing game by doubling Witten they are freely able to do so, however now you've opened the skies. Terrell Owens is a severe down field threat as a physical specimen with blazing speed. At six foot three and two hundred and twenty four pounds Owens can perform routes over the middle of the field in fearless and relentless fashion. He can also out run defensive backs with his terrific speed or for those speedster corners who dare keep pace, Terrell shall impose his will by out muscling the coverage. The only missing link in this already prolific passing game is the presence of a true number two receiver behind Owens. Terry Glenn has become obsolete at his position and nothing is certain about Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, or Sam Hurd who all seem to max out at third option material. If Owen's and Witten are doubled up who does Romo Target? This was the only trying question given towards this team's aerial assault.

The Running Game: Led by Flozell the "Hotel" Adams the best offensive line in football plows the way for Marion Barber's determined runs. Barber is one of the NFL's toughest running backs who churns his legs as if each play is his very last. The fourth quarter is his personal battering realm as he unleashes raw powerful runs that debilitate defenses. Few lone tacklers can take down Barber as often seen by two or three defenders wrestling him to the ground. Bring eight men in the box to quash the ground attack and get burned by dump off passes to Jason Witten or struggle with the burly offensive line and stout half back. Rookie Felix Jones is the perfect change of pace complement to Marion Barber because of his great speed and elusiveness. With a top notch offensive line, power back, and speed back this ground assault is primed for supremacy.

The Defense: Perhaps considered the weak link of this NFC power the defense has introduced several new pieces to coexist with last year's already talented bunch. DeMarcus Ware is an elite pass rusher who leads the front seven's charge with fellow hard hitting leader Greg Ellis and tackle machine Bradie James. The important off  season addition to the linebacking corps was veteran middle linebacker Zach Thomas who looks to bring his (seven time) pro bowl form to Dallas. Although Thomas is nearing the end of his career he will offer invaluable leadership and his tough intelligent play. Those like young backer Bobby Carpenter (who shows promise) will aim to escape his label of not being physical enough by learning from the savvy vet. The Cowboy secondary is arguably the best of any team armed with shutdown corner Terrance Newman and unyielding strong safety Roy Williams. Former defensive back standout Adam "Pacman" Jones may prove himself a commodity if he can shed bad habits and the rust of a season long suspension. An already adept secondary may vault into dominance if Jones can return to glory and rookie corner Michael Jenkins emerges. 

As week 16 in the NFL draws near the Cowboys rest at 9-5 atop the NFC wild card standings, yet few believe they can even reach the super bowl. The 2008-2009 Dallas season has not followed its preseason forecast which had them easily winning the NFC East. The offense collapsed in Romo's absence and key injuries, lack of intensity, and the inability to crown a play caller exposed the defense. Their offensive game was as impressive as preordained scoring at least 24 points in the first seven games before Romo's injury. In an ideal offense the number two option would be a wide receiver, yet as stated before the season all knew that Witten (tight end) was the secondary option. Miles Austin showed promise to attain that role with an explosive two catch one hundred yard plus performance against Green Bay, but then disappeared. Patrick Crayton never quite emerged and Sam Hurd's promise was nullified by a season ending injury. Jason Witten is an excellent receiving tight end, however he is no deep field threat and team owner Jerry Jones knew this as well as anyone. Although his impact has yet to be truly felt, the trade for Lions Star receiver Roy Williams answers any questions about the elusive # 2 option. The running game was dominant as thought to be, but when Felix Jones lost his season to injury Marion Barber was left to fend for himself. With a Brad Johnson passing attack allowing teams to gear up against the run even Barber could be stopped. With Johnson a statue at quarterback even the praised offensive line showed weakness. As the Dallas Cowboys were crumbling only an unlikely hero could preserve hope for January football, the defense.

The vast majority of the preseason ballyhoo sung grand tales about Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, yet who truly feared the Cowboy defense? The defense was overlooked by media, fans, and myself as they were being considered the team's weak point. In the first seven weeks of the season the Dallas defense allowed 25 points per game and just over 300 yards with only 7 turn overs and twenty sacks. After being torched by the Rams for 34 points, head coach Wade Phillips commanded reign of the play calling as the defense embarked on a redeeming quest. If the Cowboys had lost all three games of Brad Johnson's interim quarterbacking cameo they would have been a shamed and uncertain 4-5. At least one win during this difficult strech would prove vital in keeping playoff hopes afloat, and the defense would provide this victory. Holding Tampa Bay to only nine points allowed their anemic offense to squeak by with a four point win. Despite being blown out the following week by the defending Super Bowl champs the winds of change had arrived. In the last seven games the defense has allowed 16 points per game and well under 300 yards to the tune of 33 sacks and 13 turnovers.

Despite the injuies, locker room drama, and the coaching troubles the most telling reason this team brought itself to the brink of combustion was the premature Super Bowl anointment. The very hype that created the publicity and the television special was actually the rat eating at the team's core. With an egocentric pre-Madonna team leader like Terrell Owens and the constant showering praise from the media, this team was infected with a sense of entitlement and worse yet the notion that the regular season had already been won. NFL Network's Terrell Davis put it best when he recently said "this team plays better when people doubt them". This was the key to their turnaround as we see this team can win when it is known victory must be earned and not bestowed upon talent alone. 

There is a New D in Big-D and if this once maligned defense continues to play at such a high level not only will Dallas win out en route to the playoffs, but they will hoist there sixth Lombardi Trophy.

The Last Great Offense

Fast break basketball centers around the premise of pushing the ball up court before the defense is prepared for a dunk, lay-up, or quick spot up three. Perhaps the most exciting brand of basketball is a well executed fast break offense, however this withering art in the NBA is being replaced by the team defense approach. Defensive intensity has become the championship template in professional basketball as a result of the formula's recent dominance. Last year's Boston Celtics, the 2004 Detroit Pistons and the Spur Dynasty have accounted for more than half of the NBA titles in the last ten years. Entrenching yourself in great defensive habits will create stops from which the fast break should be run. Fast break teams always look to speed away up the court for easy buckets as defense holds marginal importance. Basketball at the professional level is a high scoring affair in which it is far more difficult to stop another team than it is to succeed at the offensive end. Any team can put points on the scoreboard, but its the great teams that can dig in on defense and turn you away. So many games in this league are basket trading affairs that are ultimately determined by who finally makes a stop. Orchestrating a great defensive scheme is clearly easier said than done, but it is the philosophy that wins and without it your franchise is headed in the wrong direction. 

From 2004-2008 the Phoenix Suns were the premiere up tempo, high octane, fast break, and run and gun team. The best offensive team of my lifetime (thus far) was revamped in 2005 with new coach Mike D'Antoni and future two time MVP Steve Nash. With Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa, and Raja Bell this team suddenly became the NBA's most dangerous. Yet at the end of the day this team was nothing more than an offensive juggernaut who could never overcome those formidable on defense. The defensive schooled San Antonio Spurs eliminated the Suns from the  2004 Western Conference Finals series and another two times in earlier rounds. One of the greatest fast break times of all time was certainly qualified on talent to win several NBA Championships, yet something always held them back. The underlying reason of these failures was not that these Sun teams were over matched and beaten at their own game, yet at their team philosophy's core. The fast break offense is unstoppable when in full swing, yet to thrive in it's culmination for long is beyond arduous. When a team is shooting unholy percentages from beyond the arch and salivating over copious open looks they truly cannot be defeated. However, more often than not humans cannot perform at such a high level and the offensive reliance always rears its ugly head. Flawless execution, crowd energy, exuding confidence, impressive endurance, and luck are all required components of a true fast break team. On top of all of these unrealistic prerequisites there is still the most important aspect, the right ensemble to carry out this mad dash.  To effectively wield this style of play you need an array of amazing shooters with superior speed and quickness. Not only is this hard to come across, but often a team consisting of  players honing this particular skill set are smaller. "Small Ball" requires the use of point and shooting guards and a power forward who plays center, because no true center can soar to the fast break. A team who lives and dies by the three and needs to score well above the hundred point mark every night is bound to falter. When the offense gets out of rhythm and cannot score 120 points a night there no defense to fall back on, as defeat is inevitable.

Suns General Manager, Steve Kerr, knows the futile nature of his fast break team as he began to cultivate the need for balance, the need for defense. He has brought in a new coach to help abandon D'Antoni's run and gun style and Hall of Fame Center Shaquille O'neal in hopes to become more defensive. Kerr's assessment for the team's future was an accurate one because it included an understanding of balance. Phoenix is still a team versed in offense and to transform to an all defensive team quickly would be border line inconceivable. To introduce a change in culture gradually and aspire to become a team part defense part offense is the Sun's best path to travel. Earlier today the former Bull (turned GM) seems to have taken a step more towards fortifying that strong offense again. A trade for fast break scoring virtuoso Jason Richardson has many curious after the mission statement calling for defense. Even more peculiar was parting ways with their best bench defender and three point specialist Raja Bell. Trading Bell for a player better on offense, yet key word weaker on defense seemed to be a conflict of interest. 

Richardson is a great player who is an average defender and a prolific scorer, I'm just not ready to anoint him the messiah of change for the Phoenix Suns. What the future holds for this team remains to be seen and if this future is to be a bright one it won't be using the fast break.

Super Bowl shoe-in untied

 When out with a broken pinkie Tony Romo's team went 1-2 sputtering out of control with backup Brad Johnson at the helm. The appalling embarrassment of a  34-14 defeat to the lowly Rams was the true low point of the season. The defense looked abysmal in two double digit losses and with the offense performing at an equally poor level they became a forgotten team. This unit clearly needed its leader to return as quickly as possible. 

Alas, upon Romo's return came the reinvention of Terrell Owens and the reclamation of the high octane offense Dallas fans have become accustomed to. With the offense putting up points it was on the field longer giving the much maligned defense needed rest. The return of the all pro quarterback infused his team with confidence and with a sense of urgency a three game winning streak was born.

Today Tony Romo once again proved he is not a big game quarterback. By losing the single most important game of the season the Dallas leader has now dismantled what his presence alone had restored.This week's game ending pick six against the Steelers will not rival Romo's greatest blunder of all time,  however it certainly puts a damper on the Cowboys playoff aspirations. The Dallas QB began to build his resume as a big game failure in his rookie season (as a starter) by fumbling a snap as the place kick holder for a would be playoff game winning field goal. This, a task he had performed all year, yet in the moment of truth:...snap, fumble, desperation run, and game over. Perhaps the name "Fumbellina" was over zealous based only on the man's first year playing significant time in the NFL, but more often than not #9 is good for a crucial mistake in the clutch.

After a dramatic goal line stand accompanied by a grandiose celebration run off the field (by the defense) America's Team had the clear momentum. How then does a team this talented who needed a win so desperately manage to blow a 13-3 lead in the fourth quarter? A win without their workhorse halfback Marion Barber would have been a momentous statement to all the NFL. This victory without your second most important player does more than establishing team depth and fuel a repairing swagger, it propels you to Super Bowls. With 166 all purpose yards from your third string running back and a great performance from your suspect defense this is an inexcusable loss. 

This preseason Super Bowl favorite in the eyes of many unraveled in one fourth quarter, as they hopelessly watched 17 unanswered points. The Steelers only two touchdowns came 24 seconds apart and in less than thirty seconds the 2008 Cowboys went from remarkable to forgettable once again. Romo's three interceptions and fumble were devastating contributors to his team's season high five turnovers, with none more costly than the last interception returned for the game winning score. 

Now the supposed NFC representative of Super Bowl XLIII will watch the February spectacle from their perspective homes as their season has already come to an end. To even make the playoffs they would have to win out their brutal schedule against the Giants, Ravens, and  the resurrect Eagles. Even if the return of another fallen star (Barber) ignited a three game winning streak, their chances are beyond narrow in the seven team hunt for the NFC wild card.  Will this happen? The Cutter would say not a chance. 

19-2 better than 20-2?

Last night the Boston Celtics won their eleventh straight game and sit atop the NBA at 19-2. It seemed impossible that this team could even hope to duplicate its furious 20-2 start of last year, yet at 19-2 they look to better this mark. Could last year's 20-2 be more impressive with an 8-0 start and the seemingly instant galvanization of the Big Three? That marked an unprecedented time in Boston sports with the 9-0 Patriots, 8-0 Celtics and the Red Sox coming off their second world series in four years. Does the latter make last year's hot start all that more impressive or does this 20-2 carry the same punch. The first Celtic loss arrived at the hands of the new look Pacers in the season's third game, and was a double digit defeat. In the 2007 campaign the first lost came against the Magic in a pulse pounding finish on the road. After this 104-102 debacle Boston soared in 11-1 fashion to reach an NBA best 20-2. This team would peak at 29-3 before losing wasn't an anomaly. Losing only twice in November and once in December my preseason forecast of 63-19 (those who know me remember) seemed more than accurate. However, the Celtic's bettered even an overly positive fan's educated wish with 66-16 and an NBA championship. 

That is all fine and dandy, but what you ask does this have to do with this year's 20-2 squad who is actually 19-2 and has to get past a resurgent Indiana (who handed them a 16 point loss) before the true duplication of last year's first twenty two. The current 2008 record is clearly more impressive than last year's, especially due to the premature loss on the first of November. After ascending Banner 17 this team's hunger for the upcoming regular season was in question and logically so. This year's preseason prediction (courtesy of The Cutter) has the Celtics in the 50 win category more specifically at 57-25. The losses of bench heroes Posey and PJ Brown, the championship hangover, the ever aging Big Three, and the emerging reliance on the young Celtic bench looked to all be reasons for a decline. 

If the 2008 C's could reach 29-3 it would be again more impressive than before because of the road required. First they would have to win against the Pacer's and then against the only team unbeaten by the Celtics all of last year, the Washington Wizards. After getting the Wizard monkey off their backs Boston would then also have to beat the Posey Hornets, upstart and Celtic vengeful Hawks, improved Philly, always tough Utah, and of course the hungry arch rival Lakers. 

Regardless of the 2008-2009 Boston Celtic win loss tally this team is hungry and ready to prove us all wrong by winning their historic 18th NBA Championship.

Eastern Conference Playoff Team predictions

Eastern Conference: The east is vastly improved, but the top of its food chain remains intact.

1) Celtics: The loss of James Posey will not prove as costly as perceived, as the continued emergence of Rondo, Powe, and Big Baby will combine with the Big Three for fifty plus wins and another Atlantic Division and NBA Title. 

2) Cavaliers: With the only major addition in the form of Mo Williams its hard to make this claim, but Lebron will win the MVP award this year and is flat out beasting the NBA.

3) Pistons: The acquisition of Allen Iverson is a fantastic move made by Joe Dumars and gives Detroit that offensive firepower the team lacked. The only problem is that this move came too late as the teams they will face in the postseason are too good. The Pistons will not be able to hang with the Cetlics or Cavs in a playoff series. 

4) Magic: Just give Orlando's new "Big Three" (born last year) another season together to make some noise in the playoffs. Dwight Howard had the following stat line a few weeks ago in a win over the Thunder: 30 points, 19 rebounds, and TEN BLOCKS. The only man to challenge Lebron for the MVP, Dwight will dominate as Turkoglu and Lewis will feed of superman's dominance. Also, you've got to love the emergence of Jamier Nelson and the pick up of swingman Mickael Pietrus. 

5) Raptors: Take the # one ranked three point shooting team last year and add Jermaine O'neal and give Jose Calderon the start at point gaurd and you have the second place team in the Atlantic and the five seed in the east.

6) 76ers: Elton Brand joins the upstart sixers, but this team is still a year away. Look for Brand and Dalambert to dominate the paint on D and Brand on O. Andre Iguodala will become a true all star this year and keep your eye on upstart small forward Thadeus Young. 

7) Hawks: This team discovered itself last year in the playoffs and is ready to move up its seed this year, but again exit in a first round loss to Clevland.

8) Wizards: They will get it together to grab the 8th seed when agent Zero comes back.

NBA Standings Predicted West

Western Conference: The West is as always impossible to figure out, but this is the best guess.

1) Lakers: Last year the Lakers would have won the NBA Finals if they had a healthy Andrew Bynum to take care of the paint which would have allowed Odom and Gasol to become factors. This year they look better than ever and are ready to post the best or second best record in all of the NBA and finish first in the West.

2) Rockets: The only reason this would not happen is if the Houston "Big Three" cannot stay healthy. They are the deepest team in the league as was seen with last year's twenty plus game winning streak in Yao's absence. Shane Battier is a top notch defender, Aaron Brooks can shoot the lights out three and drive to the basket. Brent Barry is a great veteran presence and the Houston Big Three rivals that of the Spurs and Celtics. T-mac, Yao, and Artest will get past the first round of the playoffs this year and are the team I am relying on to knock the Lakers out.

3) Hornets: As upsetting as it was to see James Posey leave Boston, and as big of an addition as he is, that is not the reason for this prediction. This team was a game seven win (at home) away from reaching the Western Conference finals last year, but lost to aging Spurs team. The NBA has become a point guard's league and Chris Paul is the very best, which is the reason for this pick. Paul, last year's true MVP, will lead his team to the NBA Finals this season as he continues to prove he is a top five NBA player. The Hornets will lose to the Celtics in the Finals, but are a true contender for years to come.

4) Jazz: Very little is different with this team compared to last year's squad, but they are still one of the NBA's top teams. Deron Williams is the second best point guard in the league behind Chris Paul, but he certainly has a better overall team around him. Utah has the right idea keeping their strong team nucleus of Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko, and the addition of Kyle Korver last year will continue to pay dividends.

5) Suns: Amare Stoudemire is having and will end up having a monster year which his team will find crucial in their fifth seed finish in the West. Shaq has enough left in the tank to complement Stoudemire's dominance and Nash's ability to get Hill, Barbosa, and Raja Bell going. The window of opportunity for Phoenix is closing fast and they'll need a bench to emerge to stand a chance in any playoff series. 

6) Spurs: When Parker, Ginobli, and Duncan are all healthy again this team will have no trouble reaching the post season again, don't see them going deep, but certainly a sixth seed playoff team who may win a series. 

7) Nuggets: The acquisition of Chauncey Billups has galvanized this Denver team and will lift them from their usual 8th seed spot.

8) Trailblazers: One of the deepest teams in the NBA will finally be joined by a "healthy" Greg Oden and will be ready for a playoff appearance. Brandon Roy is an up and coming perennial all-star and is ready to lead his team to the postseason.